Potential Alternative Energy Sources of the Future: Decarbonization and its Effects on the Energy System

By: Hannah Klaire V. Andolero

According to the recent statistics, the three major contributors in providing sufficient global energy consumption are Oil at 33.1%, Coal at 27%, and Natural Gas at 24.3%. Thus, it is evident that the current major sources of energy are based from fossil fuels. Herewith, energy production – mainly fossil fuel burning, is held accountable for three-fourths of the greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.[1]

The continued usage of fossil fuels as energy sources globally has tremendous effects on nature and its resources.[2] While the industries and countries in general are progressing, so is the demand for energy consumption. With this, the field of research is finding ways on how to address such issues as well as further improve the cost and deployment of the energy system that could benefit not only the business sector but also the common people of present and future generations.

World's Advancing Energy Needs

Global consumption of energy is never stagnating – and in the recent years it has grown quite faster than the energy sources could keep up.[1] With the energy demand from industries and end-users expected to rise as years go by, the finite supply of fossil fuels will rather decline in number. Not only that, but the persistent usage of such could lead to the demise of the planet itself, polluting energy sources and increasing carbon emissions that contribute to global warming.[6] Greenhouse gases prove to cause long-term effects on the planet, and contribute to climate change which potentially threaten living beings.[2]

Moreover, based from the World Bank analysis, Russia’s invasion to Ukraine has greatly affected the energy market, causing one of the largest spikes of crude-oil price since the year 1970s. The surge has marked a 350% increase from a two-year period, ranging from April 2020 to April 2022 according to records.[7] This also affected the increase in coal and natural gas prices. Such issue made World Bank’s energy price index increase at around 26.3% between January to April of 2022, aside from the 50% increase between January 2020 to December 2021. This further proves how demand for energy will be more competitive, not only due to natural circumstances but also because of direct and indirect effects on economic activity as well as inflation from energy shock.[7]

Now, experts are looking for alternative solutions on how to solve problems revolving around the risks of dependence from expensive fossil fuels. Studies from Oxford University have suggested to push green energy as part of the solution.[2]

Decarbonization and its Cost

The surge of environmental concerns including climate change have given rise to the urge for rapid global decarbonization. Decarbonizing the current state of power sector is equal to the reduction of carbon intensity, which also means “lessening carbon emission per unit of generated electricity” (usually in grams of CO₂ per kilowatt-hour).[3] Reduction to harmful gas emissions, according to scientific predictions [4] could reduce global temperature. This is in response to the Paris Agreement last 2015 that aims to reduce global warming and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. This planned implementation aims to gather international investors to sustain green energy, with a cumulative investment expected to reach at USD 110 trillion by the same targeted year.[6] Recent global investment for new capacity has reached at around USD 288.9 billion, not including hydropower above 50MW, as referred from REN21’s 2019 Status Report for Renewables.

Previous energy-economy models have underestimated the rate of deployment for technologies relating to renewable energy and overestimated their costs which made decarbonizing energy systems hard to invest in, but in contrast, recent peer-reviewed study from Oxford University for fast transition [2], suggests that a future with fossil-free energy system is realistically possible around the year 2050 and it could provide 55% more worldwide energy services when compared to the present system. Lead author, Dr. Rupert Way, who is a postdoctoral researcher from Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment in Oxford, mentioned that their team observed how clean energy sources have fallen sharply in terms of cost over the last decade – way faster than the models have expected beforehand. In turn, it is forecasted by this study that the future global transition to decarbonize energy system could save at least USD 12 trillion when compared from the continued use of fossil fuel.[2]

As the energy sector gradually decides to globally transform, it evidently presented a win-win scenario where quick transitioning to green and clean energy yields more energy access while being cost-efficient.

Potential Alternative Energy Sources

As the energy system of today is slowly transitioning for cleaner and decarbonized sources of energy, potential alternatives have emerged to challenge in sustaining the power sector, thus opening slots for renewable sources. Renewable energy is currently on the rise, and have expanded in different forms to provide needed energy capacity either on a local and/or a global scale.[6] Adapting to such renewables, however, meant the need for restructuring the electric utility industry which caused doubts from investors whether they should support such options because of cost and reliability issues. This was later proven to oppose recent findings as stated earlier, that renewables end up gradually costing lower in a faster pace over the last decade.

These renewable sources commonly include Hydroelectricity, Solar Power, offshore and onshore Wind Turbines, etc. Such energy sources aforementioned has reached its generation capacity of 2, 351 GW according to annual statistics way back in 2019, and is expected to expand by 2023.[6] Another alternative that is paving its way to the energy sector is the Solar Wind – an ambitious project from Washington State University that aims to generate at least one billion times more power than what we globally consume today, harnessing billions of gigawatts if successfully implemented.[5]

Conclusion

The power sectors’ need to transition from fossil fuels to renewable and decarbonized energy systems could aid in saving trillions of dollars as well as help clean the environment. More experts on the field are finding ways to help improve the energy system of today, aiming to transform it into a low-carbon, cost-efficient system despite its ever-increasing demand. Researchers and businesses are gradually seeking for additional improvements on energy consumption for the future generations to come, keeping renewable energy and potential alternatives more relevant to the global community.

References

[1] H. Ritchie and M. Roser and P. Rosado, “Energy Mix”, Our World in Data, Oxford University, 2022

[2] R. Way et.al., “Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition”, Joule, 2022

[3] G. Kyriacou and J. Burke, “What is ‘decarbonisation’ of the power sector?”, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, 29 Jan 2020

[4] J. Finklestein and D. Frankel and J. Noffsinger, “How to decarbonize global power systems”, McKinsey & Company, 19 May 2019

[5] “Alternative energy sources you probably haven’t heard of”, Electricite de France (EDF), 2020

[6] V. Vishnubhotla. “Alternative Energy Sources That Can Make A Difference”, GreenMatch, 19 Apr 2022

[7] J.D. Guenette and J. Khadan, “The energy shock could sap global growth for years”, World Bank Blogs, 22 Jun 22